BANGKOK, Sept 2 (NNN-TNA) – With surging COVID-19 cases in neighbouring Myanmar, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) warned that, the threat of a second-wave of COVID-19 infections may delay economic recovery, despite latest indicators showing signs of improvement.
Although the Thai economy was better than expected in June and July, it is too early to predict that it will do better than the forecast 8.1-percent contraction, said Don Nakornthab, senior director of BoT’s Economic and Policy Department.
Tourist arrivals is expected to be lower than the eight million initially forecast for this year, said Don, pointing out that, there have been only 6.7 million arrivals this year.
“Recovery of the tourism sector is expected to be delayed until next year,” said Don. “BoT estimates there will be 16 million tourists next year, though Tourism and Sports Ministry only predicted 12 million.”
Economic indicators in July showed continued recovery from June, while public and state enterprise spending expanded 50 percent and 17.2 percent respectively.
Consumer spending only contracted by 0.1 percent in July, far better than the 4.5-percent contraction in June. Exports also did slightly better, dropping 11.9 percent compared to the 24.6 percent fall in June.
Don said, the labour market remained fragile and had shown few signs of improvement. So far, 27 percent of workers who have lost their jobs have put in for unemployment benefits with the social security system.
Thailand’s current account deficit, estimated at 247 million U.S. dollars in June, has turned into a 1.8-billion-U.S. dollar surplus in July, thanks to the export of gold.
The Thai currency weakened in July but rebounded in Aug. Headline inflation remained in the negative, but at the smaller figure of minus 0.98 percent in July, which is a good sign, as it indicates the deflation threat has weakened, Don said.
He also said that the negative inflation rate will be lower due to rising oil prices and economic recovery.
“However the projected numbers should remain, unless a second wave of COVID-19 infections strike Thailand,” Don said.– NNN-TNA
