WASHINGTON, April 10 (NNN-AGENCIES) — The global coronavirus pandemic is causing an economic crisis unlike any in the past century and will require a massive response to ensure recovery, IMF chief Kristalina
Georgieva said.
The warnings about the damage inflicted by the virus already were
stark, but Georgieva warned that the world should brace for “the worst
economic fallout since the Great Depression.”
With the number of cases now surpassing 1.5 million worldwide with
nearly 89,000 deaths in 192 countries and territories, much of the
global economy has been shut down to contain the spread of the virus.
The International Monetary Fund expects “global growth will turn
sharply negative in 2020,” with 170 of the fund’s 180 members
experiencing a decline in per capita income, Georgieva said.
Just a few months ago, the fund was expecting 160 countries to see
rising per capita income, she said in a speech previewing next week’s
spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, which will be held
virtually due to the restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19.
Even in the best-case scenario, the IMF expects only a “partial
recovery” next year, assuming the virus fades later this year,
allowing normal business to resume as the lockdowns imposed to contain
its spread are lifted.
But she added this ominous caution: “It could get worse.”
There is “tremendous uncertainty around the outlook” and the duration
of the pandemic, Georgieva said.
The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday,
with grim forecasts for its members this year and next. In January,
the IMF projected global growth of 3.3 percent this year and 3.4
percent in 2021. But that was a different world.
The US economy has purged 17 million jobs since mid-March, with the
latest weekly data issued Thursday showing 6.6 million workers filed
for unemployment benefits, and economists projecting a double-digit
jobless rate this month.
The World Bank said Thursday the pandemic might cause the first
recession in Africa in 25 years.
Recovery depends on decisive actions now, Georgieva said. The IMF
has $1 trillion in lending capacity and is responding to unprecedented
calls from 90 countries for emergency financing.
Countries already have taken steps worth a combined $8 trillion, but
Georgieva urged governments to do more.
“Lifelines for households and businesses are imperative” to “avoid a
scarring of the economy that would make the recovery so much more
difficult.”
The IMF board approved a doubling of emergency lending facilities
which will provide about $100 billion, and is moving ahead with debt
relief for the poorest countries, and also help for countries with
unsustainable debt levels.
“The bleak outlook applies to advanced and developing economies
alike. This crisis knows no boundaries. Everybody hurts,” Georgieva
said.
She noted that about $100 billion in investments already had fled
emerging markets — more than three times the capital exodus seen in
the 2008 global financial crisis.
US officials have scrambled to apply a tourniquet to stem the
bleeding of jobs in the world’s largest economy and keep the financial
system from freezing up.
The Federal Reserve rolled out another series of lending programs
Thursday totaling $2.3 trillion to help small and medium businesses as
well as state and local governments facing cash shortages.
Fed chair Jerome Powell said the US is moving “with alarming speed
from 50-year lows in unemployment to what will likely be very high.”
And like Georgieva, he indicated the US government will have to
provide more direct support, since the Fed is limited to lending to
solvent entities.
“All of us are affected, but the burdens are falling most heavily on
those least able to carry them,” Powell said.
But he also tried to offer some reassurance, saying the US economic
rebound could be “robust.” — NNN-AGENCIES
