CAIRO, April 15 (Xinhua) – No vessel breached the U.S. blockade on Iran in the first 24 hours, the U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday, while ship-tracking data showed that several vessels continued to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the same day.
That raises three questions: What is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz? To what extent has shipping through the strait declined since the conflict began? And where could the standoff head next?
The U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday that no vessel had breached the U.S. blockade in the first 24 hours, adding that six merchant ships had turned back under U.S. instructions to an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. More than 10 warships and dozens of aircraft had been deployed to enforce the blockade.
A day earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would start blocking all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports from 10 a.m. Eastern Time (1400 GMT) on Monday, a move widely seen by international media as aimed at choking off Iranian oil exports and pressuring Tehran into making concessions, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet the waterway was not completely shut on Tuesday. Reuters, citing shipping data and vessel-tracking analysis, reported that at least eight ships transited the strait that day. Three of them had previous business links with Iran, but were not sailing to or from Iranian ports at the time and therefore were not subject to the blockade.
One Panama-flagged tanker that sailed through the strait, for example, was heading to Hamriyah Port in the United Arab Emirates. The ship typically carries Iranian naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock, to other Middle Eastern ports for onward export.
As a major international energy transport corridor, the Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. Twenty-five percent of global seaborne oil trade passed through the strait in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency.
Iran has effectively closed the strait and barred vessels linked to hostile parties from transiting through the waterway since the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
Data from the Belgium-based shipping analytics firm Kpler showed that a total of 279 ships passed through the strait between Feb. 28 and April 12.
Before the conflict, more than 130 ships passed through the strait each day. Average daily traffic has fallen by over 95 percent since the outbreak of the war. A two-week ceasefire took effect last Wednesday after the United States and Iran reached an agreement. But Iran has maintained restrictions on the strait after the ceasefire, citing continued Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon and Washington’s toleration of violations of the truce.
Kpler’s data showed that 45 ships passed through the strait between last Wednesday and Sunday, suggesting that traffic picked up after the ceasefire but remained far below pre-war levels.
Last weekend’s talks between the U.S. and Iranian delegations in Islamabad, capital of Pakistan, concluded without results. It’s reported on Wednesday that the two sides were planning another round of talks there later this week. Trump also hinted on Tuesday that Washington and Tehran could return to the negotiating table within the next two days. He told The New York Post that “something could happen” in the next two days, suggesting that Washington was open to resuming talks.
Analysts in the Middle East say Washington may refrain from resuming a major military confrontation for now, whether to contain the costs of escalation or to buy time. Instead, it may take limited actions such as a maritime blockade to keep up pressure on Tehran and seek leverage in negotiations.
Abdulaziz Alshaabani, a Saudi researcher at Al Riyadh Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said both sides understood the high cost of a wider war, but neither was willing to back down without gain. For now, he said, the situation may remain one of limited military confrontation alongside continued contacts, as both sides seek a stronger position ahead of further talks.
–NNN-Xinhua