LIMA, Jan 3 (NNN-ANDINA) — If 2023 was the year of crises for Peru, 2024 will be favored by lower levels of inflation and a boost in private investment, Moody’s Investors Service Vice-President and Senior Credit Officer Jaime Reusche has predicted.
In an interview with the Official Gazette El Peruano, he affirmed that a better political context could improve Peru’s credit outlook.
Regarding his perspectives on the Peruvian economy for 2024, Reusche stated that inflation was rapidly converging towards the target range of the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).
“We believe this will have a positive impact on consumption this year,” he said.
Moreover, the Moody’s officer remarked that consumption was affected by high inflation.
“Overall, we expect 2024 to be a year of transition towards a more sustainable growth environment. We see it as a year of recovery, in which there should be a rebound,” he expressed.
Reusche emphasized that it depends a lot on how things develop and on the factors affecting the economy, especially El Niño phenomenon. Moody’s forecast is that potential growth slowed and is probably around 2.7%.
In this regard, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the BCR project that productive activity will grow 3% in 2024, above potential.
According to the Moody’s representative, this makes a lot of sense because Peru has a gross domestic product (GDP) gap, but this year it should be stronger than its potential level.
“However, we expect an economic growth of 2.7%. This also makes sense, because we see a GDP gap, although somewhat smaller than the 3% projected by the MEF and the BCR,” Reusche pointed out.
“Our forecast is conservative because it takes into account the risks of El Niño, which could subtract three percentage points from economic momentum in 2024. However, if the climate phenomenon is weak, then there is a certain bias towards the projections being more upward,” he added. — NNN-ANDINA
