SYDNEY, Jun 2 (NNN-AAP) – Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), issued its winter long-range forecast yesterday, saying that, large areas of Australia are likely to see below-average rainfall, along with warmer temperatures.
According to the forecast, for Jun to Aug, warmer than usual daytime temperatures are expected for virtually everywhere in Australia.
Warmer nights are also likely for many areas, with cooler nights for western New South Wales (NSW), parts of southern Queensland, eastern South Australia and southern areas of the Northern Territory.
Meanwhile, much of Australia is at least twice as likely to receive unusually low rainfall, with some parts of southern and north-western Australia more than three times as likely.
Catherine Ganter, BOM’s extended prediction technical lead, noted that, with drier conditions forecast, the risk of frost during winter was heightened for inland southern areas.
“Even though average minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual this winter, there will still be times of cold wintry conditions,” said Ganter.
“This can increase frost risk when there are still nights that are clear of cloud cover.”
Several factors – including possible warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean towards El Nino thresholds, signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and warmer than average ocean temperatures – are believed to influence the climate of Australia during winter.
The BOM is currently remaining at El Nino Watch, which indicates that there is an increased risk of an El Nino event occurring this year – at least double the usual chance of 25 percent.
Ganter added that, any change to the El Nino Watch status would not change the long-range forecast, which is already trending towards warm and dry for most of Australia.
In a seasonal bushfire outlook, also released yesterday, Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council, said that, the combination of reduced rainfall and above-average temperatures and evaporation, results in outlooks for drier-than-average root zone soil moisture by late winter.
“Much of Central Australia is showing above normal fire potential for this outlook, due to reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and higher fuel loads,” said the council.
“Parts of NSW also have above normal fire potential, driven by the risk of frost curing of high grass fuel loads,” it added.– NNN-AAP
